The Turn of the Tide in the Pacific War
Strategic Initiative, Intelligence, and Command, 1941-1943
Sean M. Judge and Jonathan M. House
Midway through 1942, Japanese and Allied forces found themselves fighting on two fronts—in New Guinea and the Solomon Islands. These concurrent campaigns, conducted between July 1942 and February 1943, proved a critical turning point in the war being waged in the Pacific, as the advantage definitively shifted from the Japanese to the Americans. Key to this shift was the Allies seizing of the strategic initiative—a concept that Sean Judge examines in this book, particularly in the context of the Pacific War.
The concept of strategic initiative, in this analysis, helps to explain why and how contending powers design campaigns and use military forces to alter the trajectory of war. Judge identifies five factors that come into play in capturing and maintaining the initiative: resources, intelligence, strategic acumen, combat effectiveness, and chance, all of which are affected by political will. His book uses the dual campaigns in New Guinea and the Solomon Islands as a case study in strategic initiative by reconstructing the organizations, decisions, and events that influenced the shift of initiative from one adversary to the other. Perhaps the most critical factor in this case is strategic acumen, without which the other advantages are easily squandered. Specifically, Judge details how General Douglas MacArthur and Admiral Chester Nimitz, in designing and executing these campaigns, provided the strategic leadership essential to reversing the tide of war—whose outcome, Judge contends, was not as inevitable as conventional wisdom tells us.
“This book, a model of well researched scholarly writing, explains why Japan’s early conquests in the Pacific theater of the Second World War were so much more fragile than those of its Axis ally, Germany, in the European theater.”
—Michigan War Studies Review
“Military professionals, especially strategists, and historians will assuredly benefit from Sean Judge’s exhaustive investigation and understanding of the shifting and seizing of the strategic initiative as presented in his strategic analysis.”
—Journal of Military HistorySee all reviews...
“A good, concise read for both military historians and strategic leaders.”
“Provides a new analytical approach to understanding the early stages of the war as well as a new analytical tool that can be applied to understand other conflicts. Judge deploys the concept of strategic initiative to understand the shifting operation momentum between the United States and Imperial Japan from the attack on Pearl Harbor through early 1943.”
—The Strategy Bridge
“The Turn of the Tide in the Pacific War is a valuable addition to the literature on strategy. The chapters on intelligence organizations in both the Japanese and US militaries are particularly useful in understanding Judge’s explication of the concept of strategic initiative. Judge argues that strategic initiative is a concept that needs more formal study, and his case study here highlights how such a process can be accomplished while at the same time providing a gripping campaign analysis.”
—John T. Kuehn, professor of military history, Army Command and General Staff College
“This insightful study shows how the tide really turned in the Japanese-American Pacific War. Reinforcing the role of contingency in shaping outcomes in the conflict that are too often seen as preordained, Judge reveals the combination of strategy and serendipity that allowed the Americans to finally seize the initiative that would lead to eventual victory.”
—Conrad C. Crane, author of American Airpower Strategy in World War II: Bombs, Cities, Civilians, and Oil
“Sean M. Judge’s The Turn of the Tide in the Pacific War sheds much-needed light on two important issues. He first provides analytical clarity concerning the much bandied-about concept of ‘strategic initiative.’ Then he puts it to good use by demonstrating how the campaigns for New Guinea and Guadalcanal were mutually supporting and turned the tide against the Japanese military. Judge’s work demands a wide readership.”
—Kevin C. Holzimmer, author of General Walter Krueger: Unsung Hero of the Pacific War
“Historians of World War II have long understood its macro ebb and flow. In the opening phase the Axis powers went on a rampage, conquering territory at a terrifying rate. There followed an intermediate period during which the initiative was in dispute. Then the Allies tipped the balance and kept Germany and Japan reacting until the end of the war. The Turn of the Tide in the Pacific War analyzes this tipping point for the war in the Pacific. It is a groundbreaking study that delves deeply into how and why the Americans wrested control of the war from the Japanese. Its counterintuitive findings are as relevant today as they were over seventy years ago.”
—Harold R. Winton, author of Corps Commanders of the Bulge: Six American Generals and Victory in the ArdennesSee fewer reviews...
The strategic initiative, once passed to American and Allied forces in the Pacific, would never be relinquished. In its explanation of how and why this happened, The Turn of the Tide in the Pacific War holds important lessons for students of military history and for future strategic leaders.