What It Could Mean for 2024
By Michael J. Pomante II
Over the last nine years, Donald Trump, his associates, and the Republican Party have rallied against accessible voting, arguing that easy voting allows for massive voter fraud. They have suggested that ballot machines have switched votes, Democrats have trucked in and dropped off thousands of ballots at vote counting centers, dead people have voted, and undocumented immigrants voted to explain why Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. So, to prevent these things, which do not happen at the rate Republicans claim, from happening, Republican-controlled states have been busily passing laws that make the process of voting more burdensome in the name of election integrity. My 2024 COVI update at Election Law Journal uncovers the consistent move toward more restrictive voting in Republican states and reports the most recent rankings.
Changing Demographics and Their Impact on Voting for the Republican Party
Since 1996, Democrats have focused on making voting more accessible, while Republican states have made voting more restrictive. Democrats and Republicans have worked to alter election laws based on their beliefs that such changes will benefit their electoral chances of winning. However, the evidence does not support those beliefs. Specifically, The Cost of Voting in the American States uncovers that easier voting does not align with those beliefs.
In our book on the cost of voting, we discover that Republican-controlled states only work to make voting more restrictive when they have growing or sizable minority populations. And, in turn, by making voting more restrictive, Republicans are successful at decreasing the turnout among some minority populations, such as Black, Hispanic, and Asian Americans. Yet, with the nation’s changing demographics, this approach might contribute to Republican losses.
For example, Pew Research has documented a significant diversification in the racial composition of the Republican Party’s electorate since 1996. Initially, 93 percent of Republican voters were White. Yet, this figure dropped to 79 percent by 2023, leaving 21 percent of the party’s voters as non-White. The increase in minority voters within the party is predominantly among Hispanics, followed by Black and Asian Americans. Notably, these are the same groups most impacted by strict voting regulations, which suppress their electoral participation. In our 2023 book, we noted a trend that in states where voting was more accessible, former President Trump gained more support than in 2016. In contrast, Trump saw decreased support in states with more stringent voting regulations in 2020. This observation supports the broader academic consensus, such as findings that enhancing voter accessibility or increasing turnouts does not necessarily benefit Democrats.
Electoral Outcomes and the Effect of Voting Accessibility
For instance, when my coauthors and I examined each of the fifty states, we saw how Biden’s support changed in 2020 compared to Hillary Clinton’s support in 2016—specifically, he outperformed Clinton in the states where voting was relatively more restrictive. To illustrate this point, let’s look at New Hampshire, in 2020 it was the most challenging state to vote in. There, Biden overperformed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 support by approximately 3.5 percentage points. In other words, Trump underperformed his 2016 support rate by 3.5 percentage points. This decline is visible in other states that made voting restrictive. For example, Trump underperformed his 2016 numbers by 0.6 to two percentage points in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas. On the other hand, in Illinois, California, and Hawaii, which made voting relatively more accessible over the same period, Trump overperformed his 2016 rates by 0.4, 1.4, and 2.4 percentage points, respectively.
The Effect of Restrictive Voter Laws on Minority Voter Turnout
These reductions in minority voter turnout could significantly impact the Trump campaign in this year’s presidential election . . . . As America’s demographic landscape evolves, it becomes increasingly crucial for political strategies to adhere to the principles of inclusivity and fairness.
As mentioned earlier, our research indicated that tighter voting restrictions suppress minority political participation. We observed that Hispanic turnout drops from 59 percent in states with the least restrictive voting laws to 54 percent in those with the most restrictive. This five-percentage-point decrease should be worrying for the Republican Party, given that Hispanics are the fastest-growing demographic within its ranks. Our research also shows that the most restrictive voting states only see approximately 35 percent of reported Asian voters, compared to 44 percent in the most accessible states. Finally, we also find that turnout among Black voters decreases as states restrict voting in the seventeen states where Black populations are growing the fastest. Like Hispanic voters, Black, and Asian voters are also a growing portion of their party.
These reductions in minority voter turnout could significantly impact the Trump campaign in this year’s presidential election. Trump and Biden have been actively engaging with Black and Hispanic communities to secure their votes. However, as our research shows, restrictive voting laws diminish participation among these key groups. Implementing policies that decrease turnout among targeted supporters in a tightly contested election could harm a campaign’s success. Furthermore, these findings highlight a critical strategic misstep for the Republicans, as restrictive voting laws may alienate important demographic groups whose influence is growing within their party. As America’s demographic landscape evolves, it becomes increasingly crucial for political strategies to adhere to the principles of inclusivity and fairness. Such alignment not only boosts democratic engagement but also ensures that every community has a fair chance to impact political outcomes.
The Need for Voting Inclusivity in Electoral Strategies
As the United States grapples with evolving demographics and shifting political landscapes, ensuring that all citizens, regardless of background, have equal access to the ballot is more important than ever. The 2024 Cost of Voting Index and the findings from The Cost of Voting in the American States provide essential insights into how voting laws and policies impact voter participation across different communities. By highlighting the real effects of restrictive voting measures, these studies underscore the critical need for inclusive electoral processes that encourage participation from all sectors of society. As we look toward future elections, the goal should be to foster an environment where every voice is heard, and every vote is counted, strengthening the foundation of US democracy.
Michael J. Pomante II, PhD, is a political scientist specializing in American politics, focusing on election laws and voter behavior. He has been awarded a research fellowship at Claremont Graduate University. Pomante’s research has significantly contributed to understanding the complexities of the electoral environment through the development and analysis of the Cost of Voting Index (COVI). His 2023 coauthored book, The Cost of Voting in the American States, highlights the disparities in the franchise. It has been influential in shaping discussions around electoral accessibility. He works for a non-partisan think tank focusing on free, fair, and secure elections.
